Proof, not promises
Track record
Every measurable signal Speculix publishes is snapshotted at the moment of publication and re-measured 7 and 30 days later against the same public source. This page shows everything — the signals that held and the ones that did not. Nothing is cherry-picked.
Tracking started on 2026-09-19; the archive was backfilled to 2026-08-14 from the stored daily runs.
Signals snapshotted
558
Measured at +7 days
449 (held: 76%)
Measured at +30 days
86 (held: 72%)
How a signal "holds"
Confirmation is one simple, published criterion per signal type — it asks whether the observed state persisted, not whether a trade would have made money. Expect "held" rates to be high: that is what persistence looks like. The point of this page is that every number below comes from a stored snapshot anyone can re-check against the same source, including the misses.
| Signal type | Confirmation criterion | +7d held | +30d held |
|---|---|---|---|
| Token price move | at re-measurement the price is still ≥2% in the signalled direction versus the snapshotted price | 66/150 (44%) | 15/35 (43%) |
| Protocol TVL move | an inflow signal holds if TVL is within 10% above the snapshotted level; an outflow signal holds if it kept leaving | 86/105 (82%) | 21/25 (84%) |
| DEX volume | the venue still trades at least half the signalled day's volume | 86/90 (96%) | 21/21 (100%) |
| GitHub stars | the repo has more stars than at the snapshot | 103/104 (99%) | 5/5 (100%) |
| Hacker News points | the thread has more points than at the snapshot | — | — |
Recently held
2026-09-12 · CoinGecko · Token price move
BNB (BNB) +2.3% 24h · $733.14Held: $733.14 price → $770.88 price at re-measurement · signalled +2.3% 24h move
2026-09-12 · CoinGecko · Token price move
Ethereum (ETH) +1.8% 24h · $2.5KHeld: $2.5K price → $2.6K price at re-measurement · signalled +1.8% 24h move
2026-09-12 · CoinGecko · Token price move
Solana (SOL) +1.8% 24h · $101.63Held: $101.63 price → $112.06 price at re-measurement · signalled +1.8% 24h move
2026-09-12 · DeFiLlama · Protocol TVL move
Reservoir Protocol TVL +213.1% in 7 daysHeld: $73.67M TVL → $71.44M TVL at re-measurement · signalled +213.1% 7d move
2026-09-12 · CoinGecko · Token price move
Zcash (ZEC) +2.9% 24h · $1.1KHeld: $1.1K price → $1.5K price at re-measurement · signalled +2.9% 24h move
Recently missed
Shown in full. A miss means the move we flagged did not persist — exactly the kind of outcome a track record exists to expose.
2026-09-12 · CoinGecko · Token price move
TRON (TRX) +1.4% 24h · $0.343739Did not hold: $0.34 price → $0.34 price at re-measurement · signalled +1.4% 24h move
2026-09-11 · CoinGecko · Token price move
XRP (XRP) -3.1% 24h · $1.35Did not hold: $1.35 price → $1.44 price at re-measurement · signalled -3.1% 24h move
2026-09-11 · CoinGecko · Token price move
Solana (SOL) -2.2% 24h · $99.82Did not hold: $99.82 price → $112.06 price at re-measurement · signalled -2.2% 24h move
2026-09-11 · CoinGecko · Token price move
Bitcoin (BTC) -1.7% 24h · $77.2KDid not hold: $77.2K price → $81.6K price at re-measurement · signalled -1.7% 24h move
2026-09-11 · CoinGecko · Token price move
Zcash (ZEC) -11.5% 24h · $1.1KDid not hold: $1.1K price → $1.5K price at re-measurement · signalled -11.5% 24h move
What we deliberately do not claim
No "X days ahead of the market" figures, no implied returns, no predictions. Smart-money netflow and gas signals are snapshotted but not re-measured (the sources do not offer free historical re-checks), so they are excluded from every rate on this page. Speculix surfaces emerging trends and signals; it is not financial advice.
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